Is Polymarket accurate?
In general, prediction-market prices are among the better-calibrated public probability forecasts available — but they are not perfect; known biases exist, such as the favorite-longshot bias at extreme prices. The verifiable part is what we can show you directly: a live, nightly-updated calibration audit of the signals we track on Polymarket — see the live audit below.
Signal Confidence, Audited
Every signal source is graded against its own predictions. “Raw gap” is the worst mismatch between predicted and actual win rate before fitting. “Calibrated gap” is the same measurement after our nightly Platt/isotonic fit. When the gap shrinks, the confidence number actually means what it says.
Calibration compares predicted confidence buckets against the frequency with which those predictions actually resolved YES. We publish every fitted signal source, wins and misses alike — no cherry-picking. This audits our signal layer built on top of Polymarket data; it is not a claim that we “beat the market,” and it should not be read as a direct measurement of raw Polymarket market-price accuracy.
Base rates still apply: even a well-calibrated 70% confidence signal will be wrong about 30% of the time. Calibration tells you the confidence numbers are honest, not that any individual bet is safe.
See the full calibration report or the live signal performance scoreboard.
These are the same signals the paid Discord posts.
Join the free Discord to see it fire live, or go Pro for every emission with a Polymarket deep-link. $15/mo, cancel anytime.