Prediction-Market Guides & Live Data
Straight answers to the questions people actually ask about prediction markets — backed by our published calibration report and on-chain trader records, not generic blog explainers.
Is Polymarket accurate?
Live dataBroadly yes — prediction-market prices are among the better-calibrated public forecasts. See our live calibration audit: how often predictions at X% confidence actually resolve YES, updated nightly across thousands of resolved samples.
Who are the best Polymarket traders to follow?
Live dataThe top Polymarket traders ranked by genuine edge — sustained win rates at meaningful odds, not 99¢ favorite-farming. Live from on-chain wallet performance.
What is Polymarket and how does it work?
Live dataPolymarket is a prediction market where you trade shares in real-world outcomes that pay $1 if they happen. Here's how it works, with live platform stats.
How do prediction-market odds work?
A market price of 63¢ means the crowd thinks there's a 63% chance. Here's how to read prediction-market odds, spreads, and what the numbers really mean.